The Morning: An economic pulse check


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2025-09-17 12:57


Plus, the invasion of Gaza City, and Robert Redford.
The Morning
September 17, 2025

Good morning. Here’s the latest.

More news is below. First, we examine the state of the economy.

A man standing in front of a huge blue screen that says, “Hire local!”
A job fair in Sunrise, Fla.  Scott McIntyre for The New York Times

Pulse check

Author Headshot

By Colby Smith

I cover the Fed.

The Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates today. That will likely please President Trump, who has been calling for lower borrowing costs since he took office (though he wants even bigger cuts). It also gives us a clue as to how central bankers view the economy.

How do they decide how the economy is doing? They look at metrics like hiring, consumer spending and prices. And they talk to businesses and consumers across the country to detect trends that take time to show up in the official data. What they want is a labor market in which jobs are plentiful and unemployment is as low as it can be without causing prices to rise too much. They also want to ensure that inflation stays low and stable.

So just how healthy is the economy?

The case for worry

Trump says Americans are experiencing the “best economy we’ve ever had.” Experts say the economy is solid, but the labor market looks much more wobbly than it did at the start of the year. They’re worried about several issues:

  • A drop-off. Job growth has slowed dramatically.
A bar chart showing job growth from 2020 to 2025. In recent months, the growth has declined drastically, and in August only 22,000 jobs were added.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics | Data is Seasonally adjusted | By Karl Russell
  • Who’s recruiting? New positions are not spread evenly across the economy. Most of the recent gains have been concentrated in the health care sector, which in the last year has accounted for roughly a third of all job growth. That is a lot for just one industry.
  • On the prowl. It’s taking people without jobs longer to find them. As of August, a quarter of the unemployed had been looking for work for more than half a year. College graduates seem to be finding it especially challenging.

The case for hope

Yet in other ways the economy is humming along. Companies are not laying off workers in droves, and people are still spending money.

  • Low firings. The unemployment rate has stayed relatively stable. That gives economists hope that the slowdown across the labor market is less about a declining need for workers and more about a shrinking pool of available people at a time when Trump is cracking down on immigration.
A line chart showing the unemployment rate from 2020 to 2025. It shows that the rate was 4.3 percent in August.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics | Data is Seasonally adjusted | By Karl Russell
  • Consumers are still spending. According to yesterday’s data from the Commerce Department, retail sales rose sharply in August — even faster than economists had forecast. Americans are still buying things even as they say they feel glum about the economy, and even as prices rise on a wide range of goods and services as a result of tariffs. The disjunction has perplexed economists. “The resilience just continues to confound expectations,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at the investment bank ING.
  • High rollers help. Wealthy households account for about half of all consumer spending, so if Americans in this group keep opening their wallets, that will help to stave off any downturn. Just this week, the stock market soared to another new high, giving them another boost.

Knightly offered one caution, though: Lower- and middle-income households are under immense strain. If they keep having to tighten their belts, he wondered: “How long can this last?”

Related: The Fed meeting has brought together a Trump ally and people who have been targets of Trump’s outrage.

THE LATEST NEWS

Charlie Kirk Shooting

A courtroom with a large screen on which Tyler Robinson appears.
Tyler Robinson, 22, appeared in court via video. Pool photo by Scott G Winterton
  • Robinson, the suspect in the Kirk killing, wrote in text messages to his romantic partner that he had “had enough” of Kirk’s “hatred” and that “some hate can’t be negotiated out,” according to prosecutors.
  • Robinson’s mother recognized him in a photo released by officials. She and Robinson’s father then began to ask him questions — including if he would send a photo of his rifle. He didn’t.
  • When Robinson suggested he was considering killing himself, they coaxed him back to his family home. They called a friend from the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, a retired deputy sheriff, and began trying to negotiate Robinson’s surrender.
  • Attorney General Pam Bondi said she would target people engaging in “hate speech,” despite the First Amendment’s broad protections.

More on Assassinations

War in Gaza

  • Thousands of Palestinians fled Gaza City yesterday as Israel bombed the area and said an expanded ground operation had begun.
  • Trump has neither urged restraint nor endorsed the offensive, our colleague Michael Crowley wrote from Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu is taking his inaction as a green light to proceed.

Politics

  • Speaker Mike Johnson released a bill to keep the government running past a Sept. 30 deadline, effectively daring Democrats to allow a shutdown. Top Democrats say they oppose the bill, raising the chances of a shutdown.
  • The Trump administration ordered several National Park Service sites to take down materials related to slavery and Native Americans.
  • Immigrant detainees are not receiving proper mental health care, lawyers and advocacy groups say, and reports of suicide attempts are persistent.
  • Trump arrived in Britain for a state visit, and people protested by projecting his mug shot on the walls of Windsor Castle. In the video below, Mark Landler, our London bureau chief, explains how British leaders are trying to stay on Trump’s good side.
A video clip of Mark Landler speaking.

Other Big Stories

  • Extreme heat exacerbated by climate change led to tens of thousands of excess deaths this summer in Europe, scientists said.
  • Britain is expanding its use of live facial recognition, digital surveillance and internet regulation faster than almost any other Western democracy.
  • Ask The Morning: Do you have questions about drones? Tell us here. We’ll answer some in a future newsletter.

TRUMP’S LAWSUIT

The president sued The New York Times on Monday for $15 billion, saying our 2024 campaign coverage had defamed him and sought to undermine his campaign. The suit cites articles that document his rise, the accusations made against him, his time on “The Apprentice” and the views of a former top general. “It lacks any legitimate legal claims and instead is an attempt to stifle and discourage independent reporting,” a spokesman for The Times said.

Trump has sued several news organizations this year in an apparent effort to soften coverage of him. Many have settled — and altered their coverage. Speaking at a journalism conference on Monday night, our publisher, A.G. Sulzberger, compared these efforts to the “anti-press playbook used in places like Hungary, India, Brazil and Turkey.” The playbook has five components, he said:

  • Sow distrust in independent news organizations and normalize the harassment of journalists.
  • Exploit the civil courts to impose financial pressure.
  • Weaponize legal and regulatory authority — things like consumer protections, civil rights laws and broadcast regulations.
  • Encourage wealthy and powerful allies to make their own attacks.
  • Use access and other levers of power not just to punish independent journalists but also to reward partisan media willing to echo the official line.

“When journalists are kept from providing independent information to the public,” A.G. said, “it becomes far easier for those in power to act with impunity.”

THE MORNING QUIZ

This question comes from a recent edition of the newsletter. Click an answer to see if you’re right. (The link will be free. Hint: This story was the most-clicked story in the newsletter yesterday.)

Denmark and Greenland, its faraway territory, have been arguing recently because:

OPINIONS

Kirk built Turning Point USA as an organization where community came before ideology. Democrats should follow that example, John Della Volpe writes.

People, not corporations, should set the rules that govern A.I., Jill Lepore writes.

Here’s a column by Bret Stephens on our culture of argument.

New: The Times family subscription is here.

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MORNING READS

Two hikers walk on a trail leading across a steep, green slope toward two stone towers in the distance.
The Isle of Skye in Scotland. Emily Macinnes for The New York Times

Enchanting: The isles off Scotland’s coast offer otherworldly beauty. The views go great with a splash of whisky.

Something out of sci-fi: An ant in the Mediterranean is having babies that belong to a different species.

Hairy times: What’s with all the beards?

Speed on two wheels: John Penton, whose motorcycles revolutionized off-road racing, died at 100. In 1959, he set a transcontinental speed record, riding across the U.S. in 52 hours 11 minutes 1 second.

SPORTS

N.F.L. Several major stars will play next year in Saudi Arabia, a country where soccer rules.

M.L.B.: The Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh hit his 55th and 56th home runs, breaking Mickey Mantle’s single-season record for a switch hitter and tying Ken Griffey Jr.’s franchise mark.

Colleges: Nebraska’s No. 1-ranked women’s volleyball team drew 17,675 fans for its match against No. 18 Creighton, an N.C.A.A. record for an indoor match.

ROBERT REDFORD

A collage of photos of Robert Redford both in front of and behind the camera.
Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times; 20th Century Fox; Getty Images

Robert Redford, who died yesterday at 89, was a quintessential leading man — seductive and daring, clever and strong, with a smile that shone through in films like “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid” and “All the President’s Men.”

Yet he so resisted being forced into a mold that he fled Hollywood for Utah, where he made perhaps his biggest contribution to film: Founding the Sundance Institute and, through its festival, ushering in a new generation of American filmmaking.

As Manohla Dargis, a Times film critic, writes:

He created a place where artists could cut loose, find community and make movies that he would never have starred in, much less directed himself. Unlike many in Hollywood, Redford sought something greater than himself, and he found it.

Americans have been searching for Redford online. Here’s more coverage:

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

A plate of pasta.
Linda Xiao for The New York Times

Simmer Samin Nosrat’s lazy sugo until the meat is falling off the bone.

Read an exploration of affirmative action.

Invest in these buy-it-for-life products.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangrams were confluence and flounce.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Connections, Sports Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter misattributed a quotation about Israel’s incursion in Gaza City. Israel’s military did not say that troops would “surround Gaza City from all sides.”

Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com.

Amelia Nierenberg contributed to this newsletter.

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Editor: Adam B. Kushner

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson

News Staff: Evan Gorelick, Desiree Ibekwe, Brent Lewis, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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