The Morning: A cease-fire
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2025-01-16 12:33
Good morning. We’re covering a cease-fire in Gaza. We’re also covering Biden’s farewell address, confirmation hearings and an A.I. boyfriend.
A truceAlmost as soon as the war in Gaza began, global leaders began working to stop it. Over 15 months, Israel and Hamas repeatedly rejected proposals for peace. In that time, tens of thousands of Palestinians died. Israeli families grieved for loved ones held as hostages in Gaza. And people around the world protested against the conflict. Yesterday, Israel and Hamas finally agreed to a truce. As part of a six-week cease-fire, Israel will withdraw from parts of Gaza and free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas will release a third of the hostages it still holds. Officials hope the cease-fire will give way to a permanent peace, but that depends on whether both sides will work out thornier problems later. Israel’s government still must ratify the agreement, but officials are treating it as complete. “We’re handing off to the next team a real opportunity for a brighter future in the Middle East,” President Biden said, referring to Donald Trump’s incoming administration. “I hope they take it.” What’s in the deal?The truce will go into effect on Sunday. Hamas will release 33 hostages in waves over six weeks. They’ll include women, children, men over age 50 and sick or wounded people. About 100 hostages remain in Gaza, although about 35 are believed to be dead.
In exchange, Israel will release around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. It will also have to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza. After a week, Israel will withdraw its forces from the most populated areas in the enclave. A major concern remains: Some of the details are vague. “To persuade both sides to sign on, mediators forged an arrangement that is worded so loosely that some of its components remain unresolved, meaning that it could easily collapse,” my colleague Patrick Kingsley, reporting from Jerusalem, wrote. Why now?An enduring cease-fire has remained elusive since fighting started on Oct. 7, 2023. (One truce lasted for a week in 2023.) Three main issues drove both sides to a deal now: 1. Israel’s successes: After nearly a year and a half of war, Israel has weakened its enemies in the region. It killed many of Hamas’s fighters and leaders, including the group’s longtime chief in Gaza. It destroyed much of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran, which supports Hamas and Hezbollah, has also suffered losses, particularly the fall of an allied regime in Syria. With those wins, another attack like the one on Oct. 7 is less likely, achieving one of Israel’s goals in the war. 2. Two presidents’ efforts: Biden and Trump have pressured Israel and Hamas to reach a deal before Biden’s term ends. Biden saw an armistice as an important part of his legacy. Trump wanted to avoid having to deal with such a difficult issue as president. Both presidents’ teams worked together in negotiations, and the final agreement broadly follows a framework Biden proposed in the spring. (My colleague Peter Baker wrote about the joint effort here.) 3. Domestic pressures: Within Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s critics say he has not done enough to free the hostages. Within Gaza, Palestinians have become frustrated with Hamas and demanded peace as the humanitarian crisis caused by the war has worsened. These pressures pushed Israeli and Palestinian leaders to negotiations. What’s next?
Israel’s government will most likely ratify the agreement today. After it takes effect on Sunday, both sides will have to live up to their promises. If they don’t, the cease-fire could fall apart and fighting could begin again. If the truce holds, negotiators plan to work out a more lasting peace deal in the next six weeks. The terms of a potential agreement remain unknown, although Israel’s support might depend on the release of all remaining hostages. Those negotiations will happen under Trump. For more
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