The Morning: The Harris campaign begins

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2024-07-23 12:22

July 23, 2024

	By David Leonhardt

Good morning. We’re covering the start of the Harris campaign — as well as the Trump shooting, Soviet nostalgia and the Tesla Cybertruck.

Kamala Harris holds up her right hand at a lectern.

Kamala Harris Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Harris’s opportunity

Kamala Harris has an opportunity that would not have been available to President Biden if he’d been the Democratic nominee. She can reintroduce herself to voters in ways that address their biggest complaints about Biden’s record and the Democratic Party.

It won’t be easy. She is Biden’s vice president, after all. Yesterday, a Republican political group urged candidates to criticize Harris as a radical, while JD Vance, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, told a rally, “The Biden record is the Kamala Harris record.”

Still, Harris is not Biden, and she can subtly distance herself from his record and emphasize what she would do differently. There is a long history of vice presidents who did so when running for president.

George H.W. Bush suggested in 1988 that he was “kinder and gentler” than Ronald Reagan. Al Gore portrayed himself in 2000 as more ethical than Bill Clinton (and came within a few hundred butterfly ballots of victory). Hubert Humphrey surged in the 1968 race after he belatedly separated himself from Lyndon Johnson’s Vietnam policies.

In today’s newsletter, I’ll examine some of the Democratic Party’s biggest weaknesses now. They offer Harris an opportunity to argue that she isn’t an ordinary politician.

Why moderation works

Democrats often describe Donald Trump and other Republicans as radical. And today’s Republican Party is indeed radical in important ways. Many Republicans still claim that Trump won the 2020 election. Their party favors unpopular abortion restrictions and deep tax cuts for the rich.

But many voters also see the Democratic Party as radical. In fact, the average American consider the Democratic Party to be further from the political mainstream than the Republican Party.

A Gallup poll last month, for example, asked Americans whether they agreed with Biden or Trump “on the issues that matter most to you.” Only 37 percent said Biden, compared with 49 percent who said Trump.

Similarly, a 2021 poll by the Winston Group asked people to rate themselves — as well as Democratic and Republican politicians — on an ideological scale from 1 to 9, with 1 being very liberal and 9 being very conservative. Most people placed themselves closer to Republicans than to Democrats:

A chart shows the results of a poll conducted in 2021. On an ideological scale from one to nine, with one being very liberal and nine being very conservative, most people placed themselves closer to Republicans than Democrats.

Source: Winston Group | By The New York Times

This chart helps explain why successful presidential candidates reassure voters that they are more moderate than their party. Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Biden all did in their own ways. Even Trump did in 2016, by supporting Social Security, opposing trade deals and endorsing same-sex marriage. The strategy works because most voters see themselves as less conservative than the Republican Party and less liberal than the Democratic Party.

Five Democratic vulnerabilities

A man wearing a T-shirt featuring many overlapping images of Vice President Kamala Harris.

A rally in San Francisco in support of Ms. Harris. Jim Wilson/The New York Times

An early question about candidate Harris is whether she will signal that she’s more mainstream than other Democrats. How could she do so? Polls suggests that each of the following is a Democratic vulnerability:

Crime may be the most natural way for Harris to show moderation. She is a former prosecutor who won elections partly by promising to crack down on crime. Today, many Americans are worried about crime.
Immigration is an even bigger concern. Most Americans are deeply dissatisfied that Biden initially loosened immigration rules, which contributed to a surge at the southern border. He has since tightened the rules, and migration has fallen. I’ll be fascinated to see whether Harris — Biden’s point person on some immigration policies — tries to persuade voters that she’ll be tougher than he was.
Inflation isn’t a classic left-right issue, but it is a problem for Harris. Democratic Senate candidates have had some success addressing the problem by promising to fight for lower prices and good jobs — and to fight against greedy corporations and China. Harris, delivering a speech to her campaign staff yesterday, mostly made typical Democratic arguments, but she did add a dose of populism that echoed those Senate campaign messages. She talked about having taken on big banks and for-profit colleges as a prosecutor. “Building up the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency,” Harris said.
U.S. liberals have adopted some positions on gender issues that are out of the mainstream. Doctors in Europe, for example, believe the scientific evidence doesn’t support gender transition hormone treatment for many children. Most Americans agree — while also opposing discrimination against trans people. Many prominent Democrats are well to the public’s left on this subject. If Harris took a moderate position, she could undermine Republican claims that she is an elite cultural liberal.
During Vance’s speech at the Republican convention last week, he celebrated free speech and described Republicans as “a party unafraid to debate.” There is a reason for that: Many Americans view liberals as intolerant — quick to judge people with opposing ideas as ignorant or hateful. Obama combated this problem by talking about his respect for conservative ideas, while Biden described Republicans as his friends.

Obama and Biden were sending a larger message. It was the same one Clinton sent when he called himself “a new Democrat” and George W. Bush did with his talk of “compassionate conservatism.” It was also the one Trump recently tried to send by saying he opposed a national abortion ban.

All these politicians were asserting their independence from their own parties. It’s hard to get elected president without doing so.

THE LATEST NEWS

More on Harris

Harris has secured the support of enough Democratic convention delegates to become the party’s nominee, with her home state of California helping put her over the top. See which delegations have backed her so far.
Nancy Pelosi, who previously favored a competitive process to pick a new nominee, was among the top Democrats who endorsed Harris yesterday.
Harris, standing in for Biden at a White House event for college athletes, praised him in emotional terms and spoke of “his big heart.” See a video of her speech.
During a visit to her campaign’s headquarters — formerly Biden’s — in Wilmington, Del., Harris spoke in person, while Biden called into the event. “The name has changed at the top of the ticket, but the mission hasn’t changed at all,” he said.
Harris’s campaign said that it had raised $81 million — a one-day record for presidential fund-raising — after Biden withdrew from the race. More than 28,000 people signed up to volunteer.
Not every Democratic donor was immediately on board. Michael Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor, urged Democrats to “take the pulse of voters” and “determine who is best positioned to win.” Some Silicon Valley donors also favored an open process.

Harris picked Eric Holder, who served as Obama’s attorney general, to oversee her search for a running mate. See some of the contenders.

The Trump Campaign

A view from above of Donald Trump gesturing with one hand on a red stage with stars.

Donald Trump in Michigan. Doug Mills/The New York Times

Over the years, Trump’s rhetoric on gender and race has alienated many college-educated voters and suburban women. The Harris candidacy could bring out his harshest instincts, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan write.
Trump has called Harris nasty, mocked her laugh and promoted a false claim that she’s ineligible to be vice president, echoing his false “birther” claims about Obama.
Trump donated to Harris’s campaigns to become California’s attorney general in 2011 and 2013, campaign finance records show.

The Trump Shooting

Kimberly Cheatle, the Secret Service director, sitting in front of a microphone and looking to her left as she testifies before the House oversight committee.

Kimberly Cheatle, the Secret Service director. Kenny Holston/The New York Times

The Secret Service director, Kimberly Cheatle, told Congress that the attempted assassination of Trump was the agency’s “single greatest operational failure” in decades and said that she had called Trump to apologize.
Cheatle declined to talk about some specifics, including how many agents were protecting Trump when the shooting took place. Lawmakers seemed frustrated, and members of both parties called on her to resign.
A Republican questioning Cheatle misstated the Secret Service’s diversity goals, while a Democrat improperly characterized what happened after an attempt on Reagan’s life.
The Times recreated, in 3-D, the lines of sight for the three countersniper teams that failed to see the would-be assassin in time to stop the shooting.

International

A deteriorating building, left, overlooking other structures in a leafy valley.

Chiatura, Georgia. Natela Grigalashvili for The New York Times

While most Georgians support closer ties with Western Europe, many in industrial areas are nostalgic for the stable incomes of their Soviet past.
Russia sentenced a Russian American editor to six and a half years in a penal colony for her work on an antiwar book that the government said spread false information about the Russian Army.
Ukraine struck a deal with private creditors to restructure more than $20 billion of debt, freeing the country to spend more on its military.
Two more hostages have died in Hamas captivity, the Israeli military said.
Britain’s plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda cost $900 million and moved only four people.

Business

Wiz, a four-year-old cybersecurity start-up, walked away from Google’s $23 billion offer to buy the company. It would have been the largest acquisition in Google’s history.
Silicon Valley’s plans for a start-up city on farmland 60 miles from San Francisco is being delayed by at least two years to assess the environmental impact of the project.

MORNING READS

A Tesla Cybertruck — a sleek, gray vehicle with sharp angles — in front of a hedge near a house.

A Cybertruck. Rachel Bujalski for The New York Times

Big truck energy: More than any other Tesla, the Cybertruck, with its love-it-or-hate-it aesthetic, represents Elon Musk himself.

Ask Vanessa: “What should I wear to the Olympics?”

Frugal traveler: Spend a week in Chicago.

Social-media diet: Conservative content is flourishing on TikTok, where younger people find strong opinions outside the mainstream.

8-bit ball: Times readers shared memories of their favorite sports video games.

Lives Lived: Abdul Fakir, who was known as Duke, was the last remaining original member of the Four Tops. He sang tenor on hits like “Standing in the Shadows of Love,” “Reach Out, I’ll Be There” and “I Can’t Help Myself (Sugar Pie Honey Bunch).” Fakir died at 88.

SPORTS

N.F.L.: The Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love is refusing to practice until he signs a new contract. The team does not seem worried.

Olympics: LeBron James led the U.S. men’s basketball team to a win over Germany in its final tuneup before the Paris Games. Read a recap.

ARTS AND IDEAS

In a scene from the movie “Barbie,” Margot Robbie, as Barbie, smiles while driving a pink car with Ryan Gosling, as Ken, sitting in the back seat.

Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling in “Barbie.” Warner Bros. Pictures

“Barbie” — directed by Greta Gerwig and starring Margot Robbie — was a phenomenon. It seemed to some that the film might herald a new era of movies made and led by women, but little has changed in the 12 months since its release. “Ask around Hollywood and the consensus seems to be that ‘Barbie’ is a singular success,” Nicole Sperling writes. “Translation: Don’t expect a lot of movies like that in theaters anytime soon.”

More on culture

Eminem’s “The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce),” ended Taylor Swift’s 12-week run at the top of the Billboard album chart. It’s his 11th No. 1 album.
“On Sundays, everyone thinks about quitting their job, but Biden is the first person to actually go through with it,” joked Jimmy Fallon on “The Tonight Show.”

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

A slice of cake studded with blueberries sits on a plate.

Ryan Liebe for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

Dot juicy blueberries in cinnamon-scented batter for this pecan crunch cake.

Take a quiz about movies based on Shakespeare’s plays.

Consider a purse for your water bottle.

Slow down your morning by hand-grinding your coffee.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was honeymooned.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David

P.S. The Times politics reporter Reid Epstein was at his son’s birthday party when Biden announced his withdrawal from the race. Read about how he reacted to and covered the news.

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson

News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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