The Morning: Four leading V.P. candidates
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2024-07-24 12:34
Good morning. We’re covering Kamala Harris’s V.P. options — as well as the Secret Service director, Sicily’s drought and horror movies.
The Harris-______ campaignKamala Harris’s choice of a running mate probably won’t decide this year’s presidential campaign. It’s hard to argue that a vice-presidential nominee has swung even a single state over the past 60 years. Why not? The country’s polarization means that people increasingly base their vote on salient national issues. The media landscape has nationalized, reducing the influence of local news organizations and political parties. And vice presidents receive a fraction of the attention that presidents do. These factors help explain why Paul Ryan, then a Wisconsin congressman, didn’t help Mitt Romney win that state in 2012 and why John Edwards didn’t help John Kerry win North Carolina in 2004. Not since Lyndon Johnson helped John F. Kennedy narrowly win Texas in 1960 has a running mate arguably made a difference. But Harris’s choice could still matter very much for other reasons. She will be picking a partner who would help her govern. Most important, she will be elevating a potential future president. Think back to four years ago. For his running mate, Joe Biden was choosing among Harris, Tammy Duckworth, Susan Rice, Elizabeth Warren, Gretchen Whitmer and a few others. By selecting Harris, Biden effectively chose the 2024 Democratic nominee. We’ve chatted with our colleagues covering the Harris campaign, and today we offer a breakdown of the leading possibilities. Most analysts expect Harris to pick a white man, as a form of demographic balance, much as Biden picked a woman of color four years ago. The swing-state candidatesDespite the poor track record of swing-state running mates, they remain tempting possibilities. Given the expected closeness of the election, even a tiny boost could make a difference. Harris has two such options:
Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s popular governor, has wowed many Democrats with a forceful speaking style and center-left record that helped him beat a Donald Trump ally in a landslide two years ago. Shapiro emphasizes abortion rights — but also supports fracking and school vouchers. He could help Harris combat Republican claims that she’s too liberal. “Shapiro makes a lot of sense on paper,” our colleague Adam Nagourney said. Perhaps Shapiro’s biggest downside is that he could inflame divisions between moderate and liberal Democrats over the war in Gaza. Shapiro, who speaks proudly of his Jewish faith, has criticized both Israel’s right-wing government as an obstacle to peace and some anti-Israel protests in the U.S. as antisemitic. Mark Kelly, a senator from Arizona, has a résumé from swing-state central casting, even if he’s not the orator that Shapiro is. Kelly is a Navy veteran and a former NASA astronaut. He represents a border state and has criticized Biden’s immigration policies. Kelly is married to Gabby Giffords, the former congresswoman who became a gun-control activist after being shot in 2011. A downside: If Harris chose him and won, it would trigger a special election in Arizona in 2026, potentially costing Democrats a Senate seat. Whitmer, Michigan’s governor who would otherwise fall into this category, has said she doesn’t want the job. (Interviews with Democratic delegates found more support for Shapiro and Kelly than any other candidates.) The red-state governorsSome people may consider North Carolina a purple state, but no Democratic presidential or Senate candidate has won it in more than 15 years. Roy Cooper, however, has won back-to-back governor’s races. He would help Harris project a pragmatic image nationally. He and Harris have known each other for years, having worked together when each was a state attorney general. Cooper, 67, has never lost an election. His signature achievement as governor has been expanding health insurance through Obamacare. But he is not considered exciting. “Cooper’s not given to soaring oratory or impassioned stemwinders,” Jeffrey Billman, a reporter for The Assembly, a North Carolina publication, has written.
Andy Beshear, Kentucky’s governor, has an even more impressive electoral record than Cooper does. In a state that Trump won by 26 points four years ago, Beshear has been elected governor twice. “Beshear’s talent for projecting compassion, including to Republicans, helps explain how the Democrat pulled off 2023’s most impressive political feat,” Molly Ball of The Wall Street Journal wrote. A deacon at his church, Beshear won praise for his handling of Covid and natural disasters. He says that American politics have become too angry. And he has criticized other Democrats for suggesting that working-class people are dumb for voting Republican. The second tierPete Buttigieg, Biden’s transportation secretary, would be a Democratic version of Trump’s running mate, JD Vance — a youthful military veteran with a talent for making his party’s case on television. Buttigieg would be the first openly gay vice president. Tim Walz, Minnesota’s populist governor, might help Harris appeal to working-class voters. Wes Moore, Maryland’s first Black governor, is considered a potential future presidential candidate. JB Pritzker, the governor of Illinois, is a billionaire who could help finance Harris’s campaign. Gina Raimondo has accomplished more than most secretaries of commerce and is a favorite of moderate Democrats. “Chemistry matters,” said Jennifer Medina, a colleague of ours who’s covering the campaign. “Harris obviously knows the job of vice president and is likely to look for someone who she can work well with in this fast sprint and beyond — someone who is unlikely to cause a lot of drama or be too focused on their own prospects for 2028 or 2032.” More on the campaign
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Opinions Like many women in politics, Kamala Harris is underestimated. But she is well prepared for this moment, Hillary Clinton writes. Harris is unpopular, a bad campaigner and anchored to Biden’s record. Nominating her is a mistake, Bret Stephens argues. Trump lies about his presidential record, as Steven Rattner shows in these charts. Nancy Pelosi was unapologetically ruthless in ending Biden’s presidential campaign. She showed that powerful women don’t have to be likable, Jessica Bennett writes. Here’s a column by Thomas Friedman on Netanyahu. Subscribe Today The Morning highlights a small portion of the journalism that The New York Times offers. To access all of it, become a subscriber with this introductory offer.
Bon appétit: Food is the centerpiece of Paris’s Olympic Village, where six restaurants will serve 15,000 Olympians. Wellness: How healthy is sweet corn? D.C.: The home of a former Washington Post publisher was once a hub for the powerful. A battle has left it empty for 22 years. Lives Lived: The ethnic studies professor Robert Allen wrote a book about Black U.S. sailors unfairly convicted of conspiracy to commit mutiny during World War II. Allen, who campaigned for the sailors’ exoneration, died at 82 — a week before the Navy cleared them of wrongdoing.
Spying? The Canadian Olympic Committee apologized after a member of its support team was said to have flown a drone over the New Zealand women’s soccer practice. Suspension: A top British equestrian won’t compete in Paris because a video showed an undisclosed “error of judgment.” Read more about her exit. An exit: A Japanese gymnast withdrew from the Olympic Games after violating her team’s rules against smoking and drinking.
In the era before mass cellphone use — before the late 1990s — isolation in horror movies was easier to parse. Now, filmmakers struggle to work around smartphones with GPS and internet access. Some solutions appear clichéd or perfunctory, but others use the unreliable cellphone as a key element of the terror. See examples of the ways horror cinema navigates the problem. More on culture
Make spaghetti with tuna with items already in your pantry. Test your fitness. Protect your ears at concerts.
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